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Episode 1221: Stay Strong, Ron
Date May 23, 2018 Summary Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about the banged-up Mariners, Tyler Chatwood’s wildness, the Astros’ record-setting run prevention, a Mike Trout milestone, Chris Davis and looking strikeouts, Ron Gardenhire’s ringtone, Michael Taylor’s walk-off face, settling a game with rock-paper scissors, bad closers, Nick Markakis, and more, then answer listener emails about strike sounds, “three up, three down,” Kyle Schwarber’s defense, Shohei Ohtani’s home-run rates, starters as openers, famous players, bunting practice for prospects, Jordan Hicks and HBP danger, the “fair-foul hit,” intentional balks, and sunk costs, plus a Stat Blast about Colin Moran and a high-pitch homer. Topics * Colin Moran & hitting home runs off high pitches * Episode 1217 follow-up: umpires and the sound of strikes * Kyle Schwarber's UZR and improved defense * Baseball terminology: Three up, three down * Shohei Ohtani's home run rate as a pitcher and hitter * How often could a player be an 'opener'? * Fair Foul hits * Learning to bunt against shift * Intentional balks & other unorthodox moves * When does a pitcher become dangerous? * What will Shohei Ohtani's Q rating be? * Sunk cost and market inefficiencies Intro Bahamas, "Stronger Than That" Outro Coldplay, "Bigger Stronger" Banter * Tyler Chatwood high BB/K ratio * NL Central competition * Mike Trout has passed the JAWS threshold for being an average Hall of Famer. * Dee Gordon fractured toe * Chris Davis * Ron Gardenhire's ringtone * Rock-Paper-Scissors at high school playoff game * Michael. A Taylor's relieved face after a walk-off hit * Recent Detroit Tigers headlines Email Questions * Ben: "Your discussion about the sound a pitch makes as it enters a catcher's glove reminded me of these articles by John Lott of the Athletic from this spring. Based on what he reported in a couple really cool pieces, your hypothesis seems to be spot on. “When you get to that moment where you need a certain pitch and it's close, that's the one you stick, and hopefully you catch it clean and it pops and it makes that sound. How many times will the umpire want to call the strikeout just because of the sound?” Umpires respond to sound? “If you catch the ball clean and it's super close and it pops, it's almost like it triggers them to ring the guy up, whereas if you don't catch it cleanly or it makes a muffled sound, then they don't say anything.” And to get that persuasive pop, the catcher has to position his glove just so. “Oh, you need to catch it perfect,” Martin said. “For the ball to pop in your glove, it needs to be caught perfectly in that sweet spot right below the pocket. You catch it there, you get that pop.” At that point, Maile sat down at his locker and tuned into the conversation. “Do you agree, Luke?” Martin asked. “No doubt,” Maile replied." * Charles: "Hi Ben and Jeff, hearing a listener claim that he can tell if a pitch is a ball or a strike reminded me of a story about Nolan Ryan. After doing some research, I've found two about Ryan and one about Sandy Koufax. In "Tales from the Toronto Blue Jays Dugout : A Collection of the Greatest Blue Jay Stories Ever Told", it mentions a story of Kenny Kaiser calling a Nolan Ryan fastball a strike. When the batter, Ernie Whitt, called him out by saying that there's no way Kaiser saw the pitch, he responded, "It sounded like a strike." Two similar stories involving Nolan Ryan and Sandy Koufax occurred where the batter, Ken Frailing in the case of Ryan and Joey Amalfitano in the case of Koufax, took a pitch and turned to the umpire, saying that it sounded like a ball to them. In both stories, the umpire responded, "Well, it sounded like a strike to me"." * John: "As of this moment, Kyle Schwarber sits atop the Fangraphs leaderboard for UZR/150 among all qualified outfielders. is there any reason to think there’s anything here, or should we just say this is UZR weirdness and ignore it completely?" * Tim: "For three up, three down, does it still count if the pitcher induces a double play. For example, fly out, single, double play. Only three batters faced, but not in the spirit of the praise in my opinion." * Lendel: "Watching the Angels' game and Ohtani hit his sixth home run of the season. He's allowed 4 home runs as a pitcher. Got me wondering if he was more likely to hit or allow more home runs? I was thinking he would allow more home runs since it seems more common for pitchers to allow multiple home runs in a game then for someone to hit multiple home runs. But then again, Ohtani is an extreme outlier. Wondering what you guys think?" * Tim: "I’m wondering how frequently a starting pitcher type could pitch a one-inning appearance to start a game. Instead of a reliever like Sergio Romo, who would be worn out by throwing every game, I’m wondering if a David Price type would succeed in the role." * Alex: "How much do you think today's game would change if MLB re-legalized the "fair-foul hit"? Would speedy light hitters such as Billy Hamilton turn into superstars? Would the launch angle revolution be trashed in favor of a 'ground-chopping' strategy? Would teams be less incentivized to use defensive shifts as liberally as they are today? And could this potentially help reverse any of the recent trends toward more 'three true outcomes' style baseball? Thanks, as always, for your interesting responses and excellent podcasting." * Anthony: "I was wondering if you think teams should/will encourage their prospects to bunt to the opposite field. It seems safe to assume a guy like Joey Gallo wouldn't have bunted much in A-ball (,and probably saw more conservative defensive positioning in the minors), so asking him to learn how to bunt against a guy like Charlie Morton would be unfair. But what if teams mandate a quota for their best prospects to bunt- nothing extreme, but something like "once a week, you have to bunt against a guy throwing 95, even if they're not shifting you"? It might be ugly for the player's ego and could hurt the minor-league team, but the minors are about player development first and foremost. Would this be worth doing so that guys feel more comfortable bunting against extreme shifts in the majors?" * Mike: "This was posted on Reddit the other day: In 2005, Indians closer Bob Wickman intentionally balked in an effort to prevent the runner on second from stealing his signs and location. Cleveland was up two in the ninth with only a runner on second. Wickman's logic was that the runner was inconsequential, that the batter mattered more. We already have intentional walks, and intentionally dropping a pop-up for a favorable force or double play. Are there any other unorthodox "intentional" baseball moves that could be practical?" * Stacey: "I'm sure there have been emails about Jordan Hicks or other very hard throwers being dangerous before, but it seems like in Hicks' case, it's definitely warranted. As evidenced over the weekend by his 106mph fastball that was extremely out of the zone, how wild and how hard does a player have to be to be considered legitimately dangerous to hitters. Could the league do something about him and say "nah he can't pitch, find something else"? Would someone that consistently wild ever actually get a shot at pitching in professional baseball to begin with even if he throws 108? If guys can sustain serious injuries from HBP of 96mph and higher, would a 106mph fastball to the head officially become a case of reckless endangerment or something (Sheryl Ring might have better terminology than me)." * Chris: "ESPN released the 2018 edition of the World Fame 100 athletes, and for the 2nd year in a row, MLB failed to have any baseball players present. It's been talked about at great length how MLB has failed to market its superstars and find better name recognition in the general population, so I will do what all good Effectively Wild listeners would do in this situation and phrase this as a Shohei Ohtani question: do you think with his international fanbase, and current performance exceeding expectations, that he makes the list in 2019?" * Kurtis: "I believe the next market inefficiency to be exploited in the baseball world is the recognition of the sunk cost fallacy. I’m sure most are aware of it, but I think baseball is more guilty of it than most. The idea is that once you have invested in something, you are more emotionally attached to it and therefore less likely to make a rational decision about its future value. The current example that leads me to this is the Blue Jays’ Kendrys Morales. He is bad. But he is under contract through the end of next season at $11 million per season. If the Jays were to act rationally they would release him and promote a younger player to come up and add real value to the team. They are paying his $11 million salary regardless, so it would be better to add a league minimum or similar salary to that in exchange for a replacement level or above player. (Not to mention the need for a flexible DH spot in the Jays lineup). My question is do you think that there will come a time when teams more freely release players who are no longer providing value, regardless of contract status? How much better could a team be if the front office could rationally think about the future value of its aging stars?" Stat Blast * Jeff uses Baseball Savant to highlight the highest pitches hit for base hits and home runs this season. * The highest pitches hit (in feet off ground) for a base hit are: 4.22 (Matt Duffy), 4.42 (Nomar Mazara), 4.45 (Colin Moran), and 4.52 (Wilson Contreras). The data also has an error stating that Max Kepler hit a ball 15.69 feet off the ground. * The highest pitches hit (in feet off ground) for a home run are: 3.69 (Ryan Braun), 3.82 (Yoenis Cespedes), 3.83 (Jesús Aguilar), 3.86 (Jose Ozuna), and 4.45 (Colin Moran). Notes * In 9 games this season Tyler Chatwood has 42 BB/HBP and 41 Ks. * Through 50 games, the Houston Astros have allowed the fewest runs by a team in the live ball era. * In Episode 348 Ben and Sam discussed if they would vote to put Mike Trout in the Hall of Fame even if he didn't play for ten full seasons. * Chris Taylor leads the league in called strikeouts. * Ron Gardenhire’s ringtone is Stronger, by Kelly Clarkson. Ben then “sings” some lyrics. * Jeff says he would much rather be the player that scores the run on a walk off than the batter with the winning hit, since those guys "just get pummeled". * If Nick Markakis keeps up his current pace he is very likely to be an All-Star this season. * Kyle Schwarber's strong arm makes up for his lack of range. This season, by DRS, his arm has been worth 3 runs. * Jeff and Ben agree that 'three up, three down' can include a double play or pickoff but 'retired in order' means that no runners reached base. * Shohei Ohtani's HR/FB as a pitcher is 13.5 % as a hitter his HR/FB rate is 31.6%. * Bob Wickman intentionally balked a player from second to third in order to prevent him from stealing signs during the at-bat. His only other career balk moved another runner to second. * In 2007 Joe Borowski led the American league with 45 saves and he had a 5.07 ERA. * In 2003 Mike Williams was an All-Star despite that he had a 6.44 ERA halfway through the season. He finished the year with and had 41 BB and 39 K. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 1221: Stay Strong, Ron * Mike Trout Is Now an Average Hall of Famer by Jay Jaffe * Ron Gardenhire post-game press conference video * Michael A. Taylor's face after walk-off hit * North Haven and Amity settle SCC playoff matchup with epic Rock-Paper-Scissors battle by Peter Paguaga * Wickman balks at ordinary move by Jim Ingraham * ESPN's World Fame 100 List * Colin Moran Just Did Something Absurd by Jeff Sullivan Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes